New Zealand Election Needle

Model by Weirdly Alien
Right falls shortRight governs alone
chance National + ACT (+ NZ First) win a majority without TOP
Right bloc (NAT+ACT+NZF) seats vs majority
chance TOP clears the 5% threshold

Pr(Coalition)

Each simulation is labelled by the smallest coalition with a majority. "TOP kingmaker" means neither bloc has a majority on its own but either bloc plus TOP does.

How the night has moved

Parties

Electorates